This week's raw sugar prices rebounded sharply, rise of the main reasons is the weather; domestic Zheng sugar price the same high shock. The spot, this week in most areas of domestic sugar price decreases in 20-200yuan / ton between; produce an area to look, Yunnan Austin tail price rose 50yuan / ton, while Guangxi Nanning price dropped 100yuan / ton, the rest of the region or in the 50yuan / ton; sell an area to look, Southern China, central and northern areas sugar prices fell more obvious remaining areas.
Since June, the movement of raw sugar rebound, a high shock, the main reason is the weather problems. Brazil and India weather gave the new crop yield casts a shadow. India, according to the official forecast in June 1st -9 month 30 days of monsoon rains during the annual monsoon rainfall, basic in the normal level; but as of June 20th, India monsoon rainfall slants little nearly 26%, India advocate produce an area to the caravan and Uttar Pradesh drought is heavier. As a result of drought duration time is long, the effect is not apparent in sugarcane, India will be the new crop yield is expected to decline to 25000000tons from 25500000 tons. It is reported, nearly two weeks in India will usher in rainfall, drought will appear to alleviate. Brazil, previously plagued Brazil 's precipitation problems hinder its progress, press, and port shipment schedule, resulting in a global market in short supply. According to the Brazil sugar association data, the first half of June the volume of sugar cane into juice drops compared to the same period 38800000tons, notably last year was a year of reduction of output, it also means the sugarcane yield reduced space is gradually increased. At the same time, the rainfall caused the decline in the quality of the final sugar cane, or will be forced to increase alcohol use cane proportion. Can foresee the future of Brazil is expected to cut the possibility of high yield. According to the weather forecast, the next two weeks in Brazil sugarcane area will be relatively dry weather. Therefore, in the next two weeks supporting prices rebound weather problems have eased, but Brazil and India crop forecast will become the next phase of the market speculation focus.
As a whole,
The 2012/13 sugar is expected to increase by 0.8%, output reached 1.78tons, consumption growth is expected to be 1.72tons, will still be superfluous6000000 tons. So even if Western Brazil yield estimation by 10%, from 33000000 tons to30000000tons of cut, global supply fundamentals still excess.
Domestically, this week, Zheng sugar prices have rebounded, but the domestic spot does not rise to drop instead, Friday there was even a Yunnan warehouse, this show for Yunnan manufacturers pay warehouses single spot sales more effective, thus the downstream consumer downturn. In addition, the Tuesday market rumors Shouchu,6550received 500000 tons and 6350received 700000 tons of two edition. In fact if Shouchu prices unchanged, then manufacturers make reservoir will should be rising, which reserves rapidly full, then market will once again return to the inlet pressure and low consumption leading; and close store the price is too low, then make storage speed may repeat round storage on the spot market, thus supporting a limited role. To make a long story short, in the import and smuggling of sugar influx, the domestic excess amount to exceed 1 million tons, simple storage will only cause a short-term rebound, even will trigger a new round of the peak price of sugar imports, it is difficult therefore the sharp rebound.
At present the market focus of the macroscopic surface, favorable to the EU summit bulls with some confidence, but we know that the European debt problems will thus addressed, there is a long and complex process, the future market and there will be repeated. Because the
sugar icumsa 45 city itself poor fundamentals, the rebound degree also will be limited, in the rebound after the market, focus back to basics, the price of sugar is expected to usher in a new round of fall. dance sneakers
0 likes
Click enlarge Image
